Intertwined Recovery and Policy Tightening: U.S. Economy Under Pressure Amid Balancing Act​

In the beginning of 2026, the US economy exhibited a distinct "two-way driving" feature: Economic data conveyed a signal of moderate recovery, with impressive performances in consumer spending and the real estate market; however, the intensification of monetary policy differences and the escalation of trade protection policies were continuously exerting pressure on the market, causing the US economy to struggle to move forward in a game of growth resilience and policy disturbances.

The latest Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve outlined the partial picture of economic recovery. In 12 Federal Reserve districts, 8 reported achieving slight to moderate growth, significantly improving from the previous weak growth trend, reflecting the accumulation of regional recovery momentum in the US economy. The core driving force for economic growth came from the consumer sector, with a moderate upward trend in consumer spending, coupled with a 0.6% month-on-month growth data for retail sales in November, confirming the pull of holiday consumption and the automotive market on domestic demand. The employment market remained stable, although no significant expansion occurred, the overall employment level remained largely unchanged, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% in December 2025, providing a solid support for economic recovery. In terms of prices, most regions showed a moderate upward trend, echoing the 3% year-on-year increase in PPI in November, with the rise in energy costs becoming the main factor driving price increases.

However, the recovery of economic data did not alleviate the internal differences in monetary policy. In 2026, the voting members of the Federal Reserve showed significant differentiation, Kashkari explicitly supported Powell, advocating for maintaining the current interest rate level in January, believing that the current interest rate was close to the neutral zone and there was no need to rush for adjustment; Paulson held a cautious stance, worrying about the risks brought by inflation stickiness; Goolsbee emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve in fighting inflation, suggesting that policy formulation should focus on the goal of price stability. Market expectations for interest rate cuts continued to cool down, as the FedWatch tool of CME showed that the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in January was as high as 97.2%, the delay of interest rate cut expectations was gradually pushing up market funding costs, and bringing valuation pressure to the equity market.

The escalation of trade policies became a key variable disturbing the market. The recent chip tariffs and export control新政 launched by the Trump administration have severely impacted the global semiconductor industry chain. The new policy imposed a 25% tariff on advanced computing chips such as NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X， and planned to impose the same tax rate on semiconductor chips transported through the US， while the US Department of Commerce's Industrial and Security Bureau (BIS) changed the status of Chinese high-performance computing chip exports from "presumed denial" to "precise control"， implementing a case-by-case trial system. This series of measures directly impacted the operations of US semiconductor enterprises， NVIDIA is expected to face a cost loss of 5.5 billion US dollars， and AMD's related losses will also reach 800 million US dollars. More seriously， the US semiconductor industry is heavily dependent on the Chinese market， with Chinese semiconductor equipment spending accounting for 42.3% of the global market in 2024， and the sales of the three major US semiconductor equipment companies to China accounted for over 37% of their total sales， the tariff policy may cause US enterprises to lose the largest growth market in the world.

The performance of the real estate market presented a differentiated feature of "increased volume and stable price". In December 2025， US existing home sales reached the strongest performance since 2023， reflecting the release of housing demand after the stabilization of interest rates， but the increase in housing prices dropped to the weakest in two and a half years， indicating the market's concerns about future interest rate trends and purchasing power constraints. This differentiated trend confirmed the complexity of the US economy： On the one hand， interest rate-sensitive industries experienced demand recovery during the stable policy period； on the other hand， the expectation of subsequent policy tightening suppressed further expansion of the market.

The chain reaction brought by policy disturbances has already manifested in the financial market. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has experienced intensified volatility, with technology stocks being the hardest-hit sector. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 1% at one point, and the stock prices of tech giants such as Meta and Amazon fell by more than 2%. The semiconductor sector was particularly affected by the tariff policy, with the stock prices of companies like NVIDIA and AMD under continuous pressure. Market concerns are that trade restrictions will weaken the global competitiveness of US technology companies. At the same time, the bond market has shown a risk-averse sentiment, with the yield of 2-year US bonds dropping by 1.86 basis points, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards the economic outlook.

Looking ahead, the US economy will continue to face multiple challenges. The moderate recovery of economic data provides a buffer for policy adjustments, but inflation stickiness and monetary policy divergence may still constrain growth momentum. The "parachute effect" triggered by the chip tariff policy is worthy of vigilance. It may not only cause US companies to lose the Chinese market but also accelerate the independent innovation process of Chinese companies, and in the long term, will weaken the US's dominant position in the global semiconductor industry. For the market, the policy statement of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, the performance guidance of semiconductor companies, and subsequent inflation data will become key variables for judging the economic trend. Under the intertwined influence of data recovery and policy tightening, the road to the US economic recovery is bound to be bumpy.