Panorama of European and American Business Markets: Intertwined Dawn of Shutdown Resolution and Policy Divergences​

On November 10th, the business markets in Europe and the United States presented a complex situation amid multiple contradictory signals: the US government shutdown crisis showed a turn for the better, Federal Reserve officials released signals of differentiated policies, the stock market found support amid pessimistic sentiment, and corporate mergers and acquisitions as well as supply chain games played out simultaneously, jointly outlining the dynamic profile of the transatlantic business landscape on that day. ​

A key development has emerged in the US political arena. Senate Majority Leader John Thun confirmed that a potential agreement aimed at ending the government shutdown is "gradually being reached", with plans to adopt a comprehensive package including an spending bill and short-term funding measures to keep the federal government running until the end of January next year. This news has injected a strong boost into the market. Previously, the shutdown had already caused a significant economic shock: the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for November dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022. White House economic advisor Hassan directly stated that the impact far exceeded expectations, and Treasury Secretary Bessent even warned that if the shutdown persists, economic growth in the fourth quarter will be "halved". To make matters worse, the US Supreme Court approved on the same day that the Trump administration temporarily withheld 4 billion US dollars of SNAP benefits, causing 42 million low-income people to face the first disruption of food aid in 60 years and further intensifying the pressure on people's livelihoods. ​

Disagreements at the monetary policy level have become the focus of the market. Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jefferson emphasized that as interest rates approach the neutral level, future policy actions need to be more cautious. New York Fed President Williams sent out a signal of liquidity easing, saying that it might soon be necessary to expand the balance sheet through bond purchases to meet market demand, but made it clear that this move does not represent a change in the monetary policy stance. St. Louis Fed President Musallum's statement was more aggressive, believing that the current policy is in a moderately tight range and still has an adjustment space of 50 to 75 basis points. If interest rates fall, it will be beneficial to the real estate market. This internal divergence has caused investors' expectations for the policy direction in December to waver, becoming an important trigger for market volatility. ​

The financial market presents a differentiated pattern under the influence of multiple factors. The performance of the three major U.S. stock indexes was divided. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.21% to 23,04.54 points, dragged down by technology stocks. The technology sector was particularly under pressure. The Nasdaq 100 Technology sector dropped 3.63% in a single day, closing at 1,328.98 points, a loss of 50.08 points from the previous day. The bond market saw a general rise in yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699%, reflecting market concerns over long-term inflationary pressures. ​

Commodities and the foreign exchange market were boosted by the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index dropped 0.16% to 99.55, driving up precious metals denominated in US dollars. COMEX gold futures rose 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures climbed 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. Oil prices rebounded after three consecutive days of decline. The main contract of US crude rose 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel. However, it still recorded a weekly decline of more than 2%, indicating that concerns over oversupply have not completely dissipated. ​

There are frequent developments at the enterprise level. Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer has beaten Novo Nordisk to acquire the weight-loss drug startup Metsera for no more than 10 billion US dollars, further strengthening its layout in the field of obesity treatment. In the technology sector, a supply chain game is unfolding. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang personally visited TSMC to strive for 3-nanometer advanced process capacity, stating straightforwardly, "Without TSMC, there would be no NVIDIA," highlighting the strategic importance of the high-end chip manufacturing link. In the European market, merger and acquisition news has emerged. French telecommunications operator Orange plans to acquire the remaining 50% equity of the Spanish joint venture MasOrange for 4.25 billion euros in cash, strengthening its position in the southern European market. Germany's economy unexpectedly received positive news. Its exports rose by 1.4% month-on-month in September. Among them, exports to the United States rebounded by 11.9%, marking the first recovery after five consecutive months of decline. ​

From the budget negotiations in Washington to the index fluctuations on Wall Street, from the policy debates at the Federal Reserve to the strategic planning of enterprises, the business markets in Europe and the United States are seeking their direction amid uncertainties. The potential solutions to the government shutdown, the policy balance of the Federal Reserve, and the transformation and layout of enterprises will jointly shape the direction of the transatlantic economy in the coming weeks. ​